Fixtures / Championship / 2026-11-03 19:45
Derby – Norwich
Home
38%
2.66 fair
Draw
24%
4.1 fair
Away
38%
2.63 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Derby – Norwich
FINAL
Actual Result
0–4
Derby – Norwich
Expected Goals2.9
Both teams to score59%
Over 2.556%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
15 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
39.8%
→
37.6%
-2.2 pp
Draw
25.0%
→
24.4%
-0.6 pp
Away
35.2%
→
38.0%
+2.8 pp
Over 2.5
55.2%
→
55.8%
+0.5 pp
Both teams to score
58.2%
→
58.6%
+0.3 pp
Expected Goals
2.89 →
2.9
+0.01
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 37.6% | 2.66 | — | |||
| 24.4% | 4.1 | — | |||
| 38.0% | 2.63 | — | |||
| 62.0% | 1.61 | — | |||
| 62.4% | 1.6 | — | |||
| 75.6% | 1.32 | — |
Half-time result
| 32.8% | 3.05 | — | |||
| 38.9% | 2.57 | — | |||
| 28.3% | 3.53 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 71.7% | 1.4 | — | |||
| 67.2% | 1.49 | — | |||
| 61.1% | 1.64 | — |
Both halves
| 9.4% | 10.63 | — |
HT/FT
| 24.1% | 4.14 | — | |||
| 5.9% | 17.04 | — | |||
| 11.5% | 8.72 | — | |||
| 14.0% | 7.15 | — | |||
| 13.4% | 7.46 | — | |||
| 4.5% | 21.98 | — | |||
| 21.8% | 4.59 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 55.5% | 1.8 | — | |||
| 51.8% | 1.93 | — | |||
| 36.0% | 2.77 | — | |||
| 36.6% | 2.74 | — | |||
| 50.7% | 1.97 | — | |||
| 35.0% | 2.86 | — | |||
| 32.0% | 3.12 | — | |||
| 48.7% | 2.06 | — | |||
| 53.8% | 1.86 | — |
Total goals
| 94.3% | 1.06 | — | |||
| 78.3% | 1.28 | — | |||
| 55.8% | 1.79 | — | |||
| 33.1% | 3.02 | — | |||
| 21.7% | 4.61 | — | |||
| 44.2% | 2.26 | — | |||
| 66.8% | 1.5 | — |
1st-half goals
| 74.3% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 39.7% | 2.52 | — |
Home team goals
| 76.0% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 42.5% | 2.35 | — |
Away team goals
| 76.9% | 1.3 | — | |||
| 42.7% | 2.34 | — |
Both to score
| 58.6% | 1.71 | — |
Corners
| 70.7% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 60.2% | 1.66 | — | |||
| 49.1% | 2.04 | — | |||
| 38.8% | 2.58 | — | |||
| 29.2% | 3.42 | — | |||
| 39.8% | 2.51 | — | |||
| 50.9% | 1.97 | — | |||
| 61.2% | 1.63 | — | |||
| 70.8% | 1.41 | — |
Home corners
| 69.2% | 1.44 | — | |||
| 53.6% | 1.87 | — | |||
| 38.6% | 2.59 | — |
Away corners
| 64.5% | 1.55 | — | |||
| 47.9% | 2.09 | — | |||
| 33.1% | 3.02 | — |
Cards
| 73.6% | 1.36 | — | |||
| 55.5% | 1.8 | — | |||
| 38.7% | 2.59 | — | |||
| 24.3% | 4.11 | — | |||
| 44.5% | 2.25 | — | |||
| 61.3% | 1.63 | — | |||
| 75.7% | 1.32 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds