Track record
Every prediction is stored before kick-off and never edited. Once results arrive, we score it. This table is the model's public exam.
Evaluation Summary
Matches evaluated
1392
Markets tracked
8
Leagues covered
22
From
2026-09-13
Through
2026-11-09
Market Calibration
| Market | N | Avg. predicted | Actual rate | Brier ⓘ | Baseline Brier ⓘ | vs Baseline ⓘ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win | 1392 | 32.9% | 32.2% | 0.1981 | 0.2183 | +9.2% |
| Both teams to score | 1392 | 52.3% | 56.0% | 0.2513 | 0.2464 | -2.0% |
| Cards Over 4.5 | 1392 | 44.3% | 46.8% | 0.2415 | 0.2490 | +3.0% |
| Corners Over 9.5 | 1392 | 48.9% | 51.2% | 0.2469 | 0.2499 | +1.2% |
| Draw | 1392 | 24.0% | 22.1% | 0.1716 | 0.1723 | +0.4% |
| Home win | 1392 | 43.1% | 45.7% | 0.2267 | 0.2481 | +8.7% |
| 1st half Over 0.5 | 1392 | 69.5% | 73.3% | 0.1979 | 0.1958 | -1.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 1392 | 52.1% | 56.0% | 0.2479 | 0.2464 | -0.6% |
About the evaluation
This page evaluates stored pre-match probabilities against observed results. The Brier score measures probability error. The baseline is a constant-rate reference using the observed frequency of each event in the same evaluated sample. Results are descriptive, and sample size is shown for every market.