Fixtures / Bundesliga / 2026-10-10 13:30
Mainz – Leverkusen
Home
29%
3.45 fair
Draw
24%
4.17 fair
Away
47%
2.13 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Mainz – Leverkusen
FINAL
Actual Result
3–4
Mainz – Leverkusen
Expected Goals3.02
Both teams to score59%
Over 2.558%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
4 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
29.0%
→
29.0%
0.0 pp
Draw
24.0%
→
24.0%
0.0 pp
Away
47.0%
→
47.0%
0.0 pp
Over 2.5
58.3%
→
58.3%
0.0 pp
Both teams to score
59.5%
→
59.5%
0.0 pp
Expected Goals
3.02 →
3.02
0.0
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 29.0% | 3.45 | — | |||
| 24.0% | 4.17 | — | |||
| 47.0% | 2.13 | — | |||
| 52.9% | 1.89 | — | |||
| 71.0% | 1.41 | — | |||
| 76.0% | 1.32 | — |
Half-time result
| 28.0% | 3.57 | — | |||
| 34.5% | 2.9 | — | |||
| 37.5% | 2.67 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 62.5% | 1.6 | — | |||
| 72.0% | 1.39 | — | |||
| 65.5% | 1.53 | — |
Both halves
| 6.9% | 14.56 | — |
HT/FT
| 19.4% | 5.17 | — | |||
| 5.9% | 17.01 | — | |||
| 8.2% | 12.2 | — | |||
| 13.3% | 7.5 | — | |||
| 13.0% | 7.72 | — | |||
| 4.8% | 20.96 | — | |||
| 31.3% | 3.19 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 46.8% | 2.14 | — | |||
| 43.3% | 2.31 | — | |||
| 35.0% | 2.86 | — | |||
| 31.4% | 3.18 | — | |||
| 54.9% | 1.82 | — | |||
| 44.7% | 2.24 | — | |||
| 27.7% | 3.61 | — | |||
| 53.9% | 1.86 | — | |||
| 62.4% | 1.6 | — |
Total goals
| 95.0% | 1.05 | — | |||
| 80.2% | 1.25 | — | |||
| 58.3% | 1.72 | — | |||
| 35.8% | 2.79 | — | |||
| 19.8% | 5.06 | — | |||
| 41.7% | 2.4 | — | |||
| 64.1% | 1.56 | — |
1st-half goals
| 80.3% | 1.25 | — | |||
| 48.6% | 2.06 | — |
Home team goals
| 72.7% | 1.38 | — | |||
| 37.8% | 2.64 | — |
Away team goals
| 81.8% | 1.22 | — | |||
| 51.2% | 1.95 | — |
Both to score
| 59.5% | 1.68 | — |
Corners
| 66.7% | 1.5 | — | |||
| 55.1% | 1.81 | — | |||
| 43.9% | 2.28 | — | |||
| 33.6% | 2.98 | — | |||
| 24.6% | 4.06 | — | |||
| 44.9% | 2.23 | — | |||
| 56.1% | 1.78 | — | |||
| 66.4% | 1.51 | — | |||
| 75.4% | 1.33 | — |
Home corners
| 61.9% | 1.61 | — | |||
| 44.8% | 2.23 | — | |||
| 30.7% | 3.26 | — |
Away corners
| 65.6% | 1.52 | — | |||
| 49.2% | 2.03 | — | |||
| 34.5% | 2.9 | — |
Cards
| 82.9% | 1.21 | — | |||
| 68.7% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 53.1% | 1.88 | — | |||
| 39.2% | 2.55 | — | |||
| 31.3% | 3.19 | — | |||
| 46.9% | 2.13 | — | |||
| 60.8% | 1.65 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds