Fixtures / Championship / 2026-12-05
Middlesbrough – Derby
Home
60%
1.67 fair
Draw
22%
4.63 fair
Away
18%
5.41 fair
Expected Goals2.93
Most Likely Score2-0
Both teams to score53%
Over 2.556%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
14 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
54.3%
→
59.9%
+5.7 pp
Draw
23.3%
→
21.6%
-1.7 pp
Away
22.4%
→
18.5%
-4.0 pp
Over 2.5
53.5%
→
56.1%
+2.5 pp
Both teams to score
53.9%
→
53.4%
-0.5 pp
Expected Goals
2.83 →
2.93
+0.1
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
2-0
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 59.9% | 1.67 | — | |||
| 21.6% | 4.63 | — | |||
| 18.5% | 5.41 | — | |||
| 81.5% | 1.23 | — | |||
| 40.1% | 2.5 | — | |||
| 78.4% | 1.28 | — |
Half-time result
| 46.8% | 2.14 | — | |||
| 37.8% | 2.65 | — | |||
| 15.4% | 6.49 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 84.6% | 1.18 | — | |||
| 53.2% | 1.88 | — | |||
| 62.2% | 1.61 | — |
Both halves
| 21.7% | 4.6 | — |
HT/FT
| 40.2% | 2.49 | — | |||
| 4.9% | 20.58 | — | |||
| 17.1% | 5.83 | — | |||
| 13.0% | 7.69 | — | |||
| 7.6% | 13.11 | — | |||
| 3.7% | 26.88 | — | |||
| 9.1% | 10.96 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 75.2% | 1.33 | — | |||
| 66.7% | 1.5 | — | |||
| 27.2% | 3.67 | — | |||
| 51.4% | 1.95 | — | |||
| 53.6% | 1.86 | — | |||
| 19.4% | 5.15 | — | |||
| 36.4% | 2.74 | — | |||
| 36.5% | 2.74 | — | |||
| 33.5% | 2.99 | — |
Total goals
| 94.5% | 1.06 | — | |||
| 79.1% | 1.26 | — | |||
| 56.1% | 1.78 | — | |||
| 33.7% | 2.97 | — | |||
| 20.8% | 4.8 | — | |||
| 43.9% | 2.28 | — | |||
| 66.3% | 1.51 | — |
1st-half goals
| 73.3% | 1.37 | — | |||
| 38.6% | 2.59 | — |
Home team goals
| 85.8% | 1.17 | — | |||
| 58.2% | 1.72 | — |
Away team goals
| 62.2% | 1.61 | — | |||
| 25.5% | 3.93 | — |
Both to score
| 53.4% | 1.87 | — |
Corners
| 78.5% | 1.27 | — | |||
| 69.4% | 1.44 | — | |||
| 59.3% | 1.69 | — | |||
| 49.0% | 2.04 | — | |||
| 39.6% | 2.53 | — | |||
| 30.6% | 3.27 | — | |||
| 40.7% | 2.46 | — | |||
| 51.0% | 1.96 | — | |||
| 60.4% | 1.65 | — |
Home corners
| 85.2% | 1.17 | — | |||
| 74.5% | 1.34 | — | |||
| 62.0% | 1.61 | — |
Away corners
| 53.0% | 1.89 | — | |||
| 36.1% | 2.77 | — | |||
| 22.6% | 4.42 | — |
Cards
| 69.3% | 1.44 | — | |||
| 51.1% | 1.96 | — | |||
| 34.0% | 2.94 | — | |||
| 20.5% | 4.87 | — | |||
| 48.9% | 2.05 | — | |||
| 66.0% | 1.52 | — | |||
| 79.5% | 1.26 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds