Fixtures / Championship / 2026-09-19 15:00
Burnley – Derby
Home
54%
1.84 fair
Draw
24%
4.18 fair
Away
22%
4.58 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-0
Burnley – Derby
FINAL
Actual Result
1–1
Burnley – Derby
Expected Goals2.69
Both teams to score51%
Over 2.550%
Goals anchored to market odds ⓘ
Prediction history
1 version
Initial prediction
No changes recorded yet.
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 54.2% | 1.84 | 52.8% | 1.76 | ||
| 23.9% | 4.18 | 25.8% | 3.60 | ||
| 21.9% | 4.58 | 21.4% | 4.33 | ||
| 78.1% | 1.28 | — | |||
| 45.8% | 2.18 | — | |||
| 76.0% | 1.31 | — |
Half-time result
| 38.8% | 2.58 | — | |||
| 38.8% | 2.58 | — | |||
| 22.4% | 4.46 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 77.6% | 1.29 | — | |||
| 61.2% | 1.63 | — | |||
| 61.2% | 1.63 | — |
Both halves
| 17.0% | 5.89 | — |
HT/FT
| 33.8% | 2.96 | — | |||
| 4.0% | 25.06 | — | |||
| 17.4% | 5.76 | — | |||
| 14.7% | 6.82 | — | |||
| 6.8% | 14.73 | — | |||
| 5.3% | 18.9 | — | |||
| 14.1% | 7.09 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 69.9% | 1.43 | — | |||
| 58.9% | 1.7 | — | |||
| 26.4% | 3.79 | — | |||
| 46.1% | 2.17 | — | |||
| 51.9% | 1.93 | — | |||
| 24.3% | 4.11 | — | |||
| 40.3% | 2.48 | — | |||
| 41.3% | 2.42 | — | |||
| 40.9% | 2.45 | — |
Total goals
| 93.1% | 1.07 | — | |||
| 74.3% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 50.2% | 1.99 | 51.3% | 1.88 | ||
| 28.5% | 3.51 | — | |||
| 25.7% | 3.89 | — | |||
| 49.8% | 2.01 | 48.7% | 1.98 | ||
| 71.5% | 1.4 | — |
1st-half goals
| 74.0% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 39.7% | 2.52 | — |
Home team goals
| 81.5% | 1.23 | — | |||
| 50.4% | 1.98 | — |
Away team goals
| 62.5% | 1.6 | — | |||
| 26.2% | 3.82 | — |
Both to score
| 50.9% | 1.96 | — |
Corners
| 68.5% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 57.3% | 1.74 | — | |||
| 46.4% | 2.16 | — | |||
| 36.5% | 2.74 | — | |||
| 27.4% | 3.65 | — | |||
| 42.7% | 2.34 | — | |||
| 53.6% | 1.86 | — | |||
| 63.5% | 1.58 | — | |||
| 72.6% | 1.38 | — |
Home corners
| 78.0% | 1.28 | — | |||
| 64.6% | 1.55 | — | |||
| 50.2% | 1.99 | — |
Away corners
| 47.3% | 2.11 | — | |||
| 30.8% | 3.24 | — | |||
| 18.7% | 5.34 | — |
Cards
| 75.8% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 58.7% | 1.7 | — | |||
| 41.8% | 2.39 | — | |||
| 27.4% | 3.65 | — | |||
| 41.3% | 2.42 | — | |||
| 58.2% | 1.72 | — | |||
| 72.6% | 1.38 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds