Fixtures / National League / 2026-10-28 19:45
Carlisle – Harrogate
Home
43%
2.31 fair
Draw
22%
4.53 fair
Away
35%
2.89 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Carlisle – Harrogate
FINAL
Actual Result
3–0
Carlisle – Harrogate
Expected Goals3.51
Both teams to score68%
Over 2.568%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
11 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
58.1%
→
43.3%
-14.8 pp
Draw
18.8%
→
22.1%
+3.3 pp
Away
23.1%
→
34.6%
+11.5 pp
Over 2.5
76.9%
→
67.8%
-9.1 pp
Both teams to score
72.4%
→
68.0%
-4.4 pp
Expected Goals
4.07 →
3.51
-0.56
Most Likely Score
2-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 43.3% | 2.31 | — | |||
| 22.1% | 4.53 | — | |||
| 34.6% | 2.89 | — | |||
| 65.4% | 1.53 | — | |||
| 56.7% | 1.76 | — | |||
| 77.9% | 1.28 | — |
Half-time result
| 44.4% | 2.25 | — | |||
| 32.6% | 3.07 | — | |||
| 23.1% | 4.33 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 76.9% | 1.3 | — | |||
| 55.6% | 1.8 | — | |||
| 67.5% | 1.48 | — |
Both halves
| 12.7% | 7.87 | — |
HT/FT
| 32.5% | 3.08 | — | |||
| 7.5% | 13.26 | — | |||
| 4.3% | 23.26 | — | |||
| 9.4% | 10.68 | — | |||
| 10.8% | 9.27 | — | |||
| 12.4% | 8.06 | — | |||
| 3.8% | 26.67 | — | |||
| 17.9% | 5.57 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 60.2% | 1.66 | — | |||
| 58.6% | 1.71 | — | |||
| 35.0% | 2.85 | — | |||
| 45.2% | 2.21 | — | |||
| 56.2% | 1.78 | — | |||
| 33.5% | 2.98 | — | |||
| 25.3% | 3.95 | — | |||
| 41.1% | 2.43 | — | |||
| 44.9% | 2.23 | — |
Total goals
| 86.5% | 1.16 | — | |||
| 67.8% | 1.47 | — | |||
| 46.2% | 2.17 | — | |||
| 13.5% | 7.4 | — | |||
| 32.2% | 3.1 | — | |||
| 53.8% | 1.86 | — |
1st-half goals
| 82.6% | 1.21 | — | |||
| 51.9% | 1.93 | — |
Home team goals
| 84.1% | 1.19 | — | |||
| 55.2% | 1.81 | — |
Away team goals
| 80.9% | 1.24 | — | |||
| 48.9% | 2.04 | — |
Both to score
| 68.0% | 1.47 | — |
Corners
| 78.6% | 1.27 | — | |||
| 68.3% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 56.9% | 1.76 | — | |||
| 45.4% | 2.2 | — | |||
| 34.9% | 2.86 | — | |||
| 31.7% | 3.15 | — | |||
| 43.1% | 2.32 | — | |||
| 54.6% | 1.83 | — | |||
| 65.1% | 1.54 | — |
Home corners
| 86.0% | 1.16 | — | |||
| 74.1% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 59.4% | 1.68 | — |
Away corners
| 54.0% | 1.85 | — | |||
| 35.8% | 2.79 | — | |||
| 21.3% | 4.7 | — |
Cards
| 66.6% | 1.5 | — | |||
| 46.5% | 2.15 | — | |||
| 29.4% | 3.4 | — | |||
| 17.0% | 5.87 | — | |||
| 53.5% | 1.87 | — | |||
| 70.6% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 83.0% | 1.21 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds