Fixtures / Championship / 2026-11-21
Southampton – Derby
Home
66%
1.53 fair
Draw
19%
5.17 fair
Away
15%
6.61 fair
Expected Goals3.17
Most Likely Score2-1
Both teams to score55%
Over 2.562%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
18 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
61.5%
→
65.5%
+4.0 pp
Draw
20.3%
→
19.4%
-1.0 pp
Away
18.2%
→
15.1%
-3.1 pp
Over 2.5
63.7%
→
61.9%
-1.8 pp
Both teams to score
59.0%
→
55.2%
-3.8 pp
Expected Goals
3.27 →
3.17
-0.1
Most Likely Score
2-1
→
2-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 65.5% | 1.53 | — | |||
| 19.4% | 5.17 | — | |||
| 15.1% | 6.61 | — | |||
| 84.9% | 1.18 | — | |||
| 34.5% | 2.9 | — | |||
| 80.7% | 1.24 | — |
Half-time result
| 50.9% | 1.96 | — | |||
| 35.4% | 2.82 | — | |||
| 13.6% | 7.35 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 86.4% | 1.16 | — | |||
| 49.1% | 2.04 | — | |||
| 64.5% | 1.55 | — |
Both halves
| 26.0% | 3.85 | — |
HT/FT
| 44.8% | 2.23 | — | |||
| 4.8% | 20.7 | — | |||
| 18.0% | 5.57 | — | |||
| 11.1% | 9.05 | — | |||
| 6.4% | 15.53 | — | |||
| 3.5% | 28.74 | — | |||
| 7.4% | 13.48 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 78.7% | 1.27 | — | |||
| 70.5% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 23.6% | 4.24 | — | |||
| 55.9% | 1.79 | — | |||
| 56.2% | 1.78 | — | |||
| 17.0% | 5.88 | — | |||
| 35.2% | 2.84 | — | |||
| 34.5% | 2.9 | — | |||
| 28.4% | 3.52 | — |
Total goals
| 95.7% | 1.05 | — | |||
| 82.4% | 1.21 | — | |||
| 61.9% | 1.62 | — | |||
| 39.1% | 2.56 | — | |||
| 17.6% | 5.67 | — | |||
| 38.1% | 2.62 | — | |||
| 60.9% | 1.64 | — |
1st-half goals
| 75.5% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 42.0% | 2.38 | — |
Home team goals
| 89.1% | 1.12 | — | |||
| 64.8% | 1.54 | — |
Away team goals
| 61.8% | 1.62 | — | |||
| 24.8% | 4.03 | — |
Both to score
| 55.2% | 1.81 | — |
Corners
| 77.5% | 1.29 | — | |||
| 67.8% | 1.47 | — | |||
| 57.8% | 1.73 | — | |||
| 47.4% | 2.11 | — | |||
| 37.7% | 2.65 | — | |||
| 32.2% | 3.11 | — | |||
| 42.2% | 2.37 | — | |||
| 52.6% | 1.9 | — | |||
| 62.3% | 1.6 | — |
Home corners
| 83.5% | 1.2 | — | |||
| 71.8% | 1.39 | — | |||
| 58.6% | 1.71 | — |
Away corners
| 54.9% | 1.82 | — | |||
| 37.9% | 2.64 | — | |||
| 24.2% | 4.13 | — |
Cards
| 76.8% | 1.3 | — | |||
| 60.1% | 1.66 | — | |||
| 43.3% | 2.31 | — | |||
| 28.4% | 3.52 | — | |||
| 39.9% | 2.51 | — | |||
| 56.7% | 1.76 | — | |||
| 71.6% | 1.4 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds