Fixtures / Championship / 2026-11-06 20:00
Derby – Bolton
Home
48%
2.1 fair
Draw
23%
4.33 fair
Away
29%
3.41 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Derby – Bolton
FINAL
Actual Result
3–1
Derby – Bolton
Expected Goals3.02
Both teams to score60%
Over 2.559%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
17 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
52.7%
→
47.6%
-5.1 pp
Draw
22.4%
→
23.1%
+0.8 pp
Away
25.0%
→
29.3%
+4.3 pp
Over 2.5
59.8%
→
58.5%
-1.3 pp
Both teams to score
59.6%
→
59.6%
+0.0 pp
Expected Goals
3.08 →
3.02
-0.06
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 47.6% | 2.1 | — | |||
| 23.1% | 4.33 | — | |||
| 29.3% | 3.41 | — | |||
| 70.7% | 1.41 | — | |||
| 52.4% | 1.91 | — | |||
| 76.9% | 1.3 | — |
Half-time result
| 32.3% | 3.1 | — | |||
| 36.6% | 2.73 | — | |||
| 31.1% | 3.22 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 68.9% | 1.45 | — | |||
| 67.7% | 1.48 | — | |||
| 63.4% | 1.58 | — |
Both halves
| 14.1% | 7.09 | — |
HT/FT
| 27.4% | 3.65 | — | |||
| 3.7% | 27.25 | — | |||
| 16.4% | 6.09 | — | |||
| 12.7% | 7.86 | — | |||
| 7.5% | 13.37 | — | |||
| 3.8% | 26.39 | — | |||
| 6.7% | 14.93 | — | |||
| 20.6% | 4.85 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 60.2% | 1.66 | — | |||
| 52.5% | 1.91 | — | |||
| 25.1% | 3.99 | — | |||
| 41.6% | 2.41 | — | |||
| 53.0% | 1.89 | — | |||
| 32.2% | 3.11 | — | |||
| 39.6% | 2.52 | — | |||
| 48.3% | 2.07 | — | |||
| 47.5% | 2.1 | — |
Total goals
| 95.2% | 1.05 | — | |||
| 80.7% | 1.24 | — | |||
| 58.5% | 1.71 | — | |||
| 35.5% | 2.82 | — | |||
| 19.3% | 5.19 | — | |||
| 41.5% | 2.41 | — | |||
| 64.5% | 1.55 | — |
1st-half goals
| 78.0% | 1.28 | — | |||
| 45.2% | 2.21 | — |
Home team goals
| 82.0% | 1.22 | — | |||
| 51.4% | 1.94 | — |
Away team goals
| 72.9% | 1.37 | — | |||
| 37.6% | 2.66 | — |
Both to score
| 59.6% | 1.68 | — |
Corners
| 76.1% | 1.31 | — | |||
| 66.1% | 1.51 | — | |||
| 55.6% | 1.8 | — | |||
| 45.1% | 2.22 | — | |||
| 35.4% | 2.83 | — | |||
| 33.9% | 2.95 | — | |||
| 44.4% | 2.25 | — | |||
| 54.9% | 1.82 | — | |||
| 64.6% | 1.55 | — |
Home corners
| 76.5% | 1.31 | — | |||
| 62.3% | 1.6 | — | |||
| 48.0% | 2.08 | — |
Away corners
| 64.5% | 1.55 | — | |||
| 48.0% | 2.08 | — | |||
| 33.2% | 3.01 | — |
Cards
| 68.1% | 1.47 | — | |||
| 49.3% | 2.03 | — | |||
| 32.1% | 3.11 | — | |||
| 19.2% | 5.22 | — | |||
| 50.7% | 1.97 | — | |||
| 67.9% | 1.47 | — | |||
| 80.8% | 1.24 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds