Fixtures / Championship / 2026-10-17 14:00
Derby – Stoke
Home
44%
2.29 fair
Draw
27%
3.76 fair
Away
30%
3.37 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Derby – Stoke
FINAL
Actual Result
0–1
Derby – Stoke
Expected Goals2.45
Both teams to score49%
Over 2.544%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
8 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
44.9%
→
43.7%
-1.2 pp
Draw
27.5%
→
26.6%
-0.9 pp
Away
27.6%
→
29.7%
+2.1 pp
Over 2.5
42.3%
→
44.4%
+2.1 pp
Both teams to score
47.7%
→
49.1%
+1.4 pp
Expected Goals
2.39 →
2.45
+0.06
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 43.7% | 2.29 | — | |||
| 26.6% | 3.76 | — | |||
| 29.7% | 3.37 | — | |||
| 70.3% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 56.3% | 1.78 | — | |||
| 73.4% | 1.36 | — |
Half-time result
| 28.3% | 3.53 | — | |||
| 45.2% | 2.21 | — | |||
| 26.5% | 3.77 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 73.5% | 1.36 | — | |||
| 71.7% | 1.4 | — | |||
| 54.8% | 1.82 | — |
Both halves
| 11.4% | 8.77 | — |
HT/FT
| 23.4% | 4.28 | — | |||
| 3.8% | 26.32 | — | |||
| 17.4% | 5.75 | — | |||
| 17.0% | 5.88 | — | |||
| 10.8% | 9.29 | — | |||
| 5.8% | 17.18 | — | |||
| 17.8% | 5.63 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 61.6% | 1.62 | — | |||
| 52.7% | 1.9 | — | |||
| 32.7% | 3.06 | — | |||
| 35.9% | 2.78 | — | |||
| 45.2% | 2.21 | — | |||
| 28.5% | 3.51 | — | |||
| 43.1% | 2.32 | — | |||
| 48.9% | 2.05 | — | |||
| 51.3% | 1.95 | — |
Total goals
| 91.5% | 1.09 | — | |||
| 70.4% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 44.4% | 2.25 | — | |||
| 23.2% | 4.3 | — | |||
| 29.6% | 3.38 | — | |||
| 55.6% | 1.8 | — | |||
| 76.8% | 1.3 | — |
1st-half goals
| 65.5% | 1.53 | — | |||
| 28.8% | 3.47 | — |
Home team goals
| 74.5% | 1.34 | — | |||
| 40.4% | 2.48 | — |
Away team goals
| 66.0% | 1.51 | — | |||
| 29.2% | 3.42 | — |
Both to score
| 49.1% | 2.04 | — |
Corners
| 73.4% | 1.36 | — | |||
| 63.2% | 1.58 | — | |||
| 52.5% | 1.9 | — | |||
| 42.5% | 2.36 | — | |||
| 32.5% | 3.07 | — | |||
| 36.8% | 2.72 | — | |||
| 47.4% | 2.11 | — | |||
| 57.5% | 1.74 | — | |||
| 67.5% | 1.48 | — |
Home corners
| 71.5% | 1.4 | — | |||
| 56.6% | 1.77 | — | |||
| 41.9% | 2.38 | — |
Away corners
| 66.0% | 1.52 | — | |||
| 49.7% | 2.01 | — | |||
| 35.0% | 2.86 | — |
Cards
| 74.9% | 1.33 | — | |||
| 57.5% | 1.74 | — | |||
| 40.3% | 2.48 | — | |||
| 26.3% | 3.81 | — | |||
| 42.5% | 2.35 | — | |||
| 59.7% | 1.68 | — | |||
| 73.7% | 1.36 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds