Fixtures / Championship / 2026-10-14 18:45
QPR – Derby
Home
39%
2.55 fair
Draw
26%
3.78 fair
Away
34%
2.91 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
QPR – Derby
FINAL
Actual Result
4–1
QPR – Derby
Expected Goals2.54
Both teams to score51%
Over 2.546%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
7 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
38.7%
→
39.2%
+0.5 pp
Draw
26.4%
→
26.5%
+0.1 pp
Away
34.9%
→
34.3%
-0.6 pp
Over 2.5
47.5%
→
46.3%
-1.2 pp
Both teams to score
52.4%
→
51.4%
-1.0 pp
Expected Goals
2.57 →
2.54
-0.03
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 39.2% | 2.55 | — | |||
| 26.5% | 3.78 | — | |||
| 34.3% | 2.91 | — | |||
| 65.7% | 1.52 | — | |||
| 60.8% | 1.64 | — | |||
| 73.5% | 1.36 | — |
Half-time result
| 26.6% | 3.76 | — | |||
| 42.4% | 2.36 | — | |||
| 31.0% | 3.22 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 69.0% | 1.45 | — | |||
| 73.4% | 1.36 | — | |||
| 57.6% | 1.74 | — |
Both halves
| 9.4% | 10.65 | — |
HT/FT
| 21.1% | 4.74 | — | |||
| 4.1% | 24.63 | — | |||
| 15.3% | 6.52 | — | |||
| 16.2% | 6.18 | — | |||
| 10.9% | 9.18 | — | |||
| 6.2% | 16.03 | — | |||
| 22.0% | 4.54 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 56.7% | 1.76 | — | |||
| 48.7% | 2.05 | — | |||
| 32.5% | 3.07 | — | |||
| 34.2% | 2.93 | — | |||
| 47.3% | 2.11 | — | |||
| 33.8% | 2.96 | — | |||
| 40.5% | 2.47 | — | |||
| 51.0% | 1.96 | — | |||
| 55.3% | 1.81 | — |
Total goals
| 92.5% | 1.08 | — | |||
| 71.8% | 1.39 | — | |||
| 46.3% | 2.16 | — | |||
| 25.1% | 3.99 | — | |||
| 28.2% | 3.54 | — | |||
| 53.7% | 1.86 | — | |||
| 74.9% | 1.33 | — |
1st-half goals
| 69.3% | 1.44 | — | |||
| 32.8% | 3.05 | — |
Home team goals
| 73.7% | 1.36 | — | |||
| 38.0% | 2.63 | — |
Away team goals
| 70.2% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 34.5% | 2.9 | — |
Both to score
| 51.4% | 1.94 | — |
Corners
| 74.3% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 63.9% | 1.57 | — | |||
| 52.9% | 1.89 | — | |||
| 42.6% | 2.35 | — | |||
| 32.9% | 3.04 | — | |||
| 36.1% | 2.77 | — | |||
| 47.1% | 2.12 | — | |||
| 57.4% | 1.74 | — | |||
| 67.1% | 1.49 | — |
Home corners
| 77.2% | 1.29 | — | |||
| 63.2% | 1.58 | — | |||
| 49.0% | 2.04 | — |
Away corners
| 59.6% | 1.68 | — | |||
| 42.7% | 2.34 | — | |||
| 28.4% | 3.51 | — |
Cards
| 72.6% | 1.38 | — | |||
| 54.2% | 1.84 | — | |||
| 36.8% | 2.72 | — | |||
| 23.4% | 4.28 | — | |||
| 45.8% | 2.19 | — | |||
| 63.2% | 1.58 | — | |||
| 76.6% | 1.3 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds