Fixtures / Championship / 2026-11-28
Derby – Watford
Home
45%
2.21 fair
Draw
26%
3.78 fair
Away
28%
3.54 fair
Expected Goals2.47
Most Likely Score1-1
Both teams to score49%
Over 2.545%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
16 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
46.8%
→
45.3%
-1.5 pp
Draw
26.7%
→
26.5%
-0.2 pp
Away
26.5%
→
28.2%
+1.7 pp
Over 2.5
43.9%
→
44.6%
+0.7 pp
Both teams to score
48.3%
→
48.8%
+0.5 pp
Expected Goals
2.44 →
2.47
+0.03
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 45.3% | 2.21 | — | |||
| 26.5% | 3.78 | — | |||
| 28.2% | 3.54 | — | |||
| 71.8% | 1.39 | — | |||
| 54.7% | 1.83 | — | |||
| 73.5% | 1.36 | — |
Half-time result
| 39.8% | 2.51 | — | |||
| 40.6% | 2.46 | — | |||
| 19.5% | 5.12 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 80.5% | 1.24 | — | |||
| 60.2% | 1.66 | — | |||
| 59.4% | 1.68 | — |
Both halves
| 12.2% | 8.19 | — |
HT/FT
| 31.4% | 3.18 | — | |||
| 6.3% | 15.92 | — | |||
| 12.6% | 7.95 | — | |||
| 16.6% | 6.04 | — | |||
| 11.5% | 8.7 | — | |||
| 3.6% | 27.47 | — | |||
| 14.6% | 6.85 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 66.8% | 1.5 | — | |||
| 57.6% | 1.73 | — | |||
| 36.5% | 2.74 | — | |||
| 42.6% | 2.35 | — | |||
| 49.5% | 2.02 | — | |||
| 26.7% | 3.75 | — | |||
| 34.1% | 2.94 | — | |||
| 40.0% | 2.5 | — | |||
| 46.3% | 2.16 | — |
Total goals
| 91.6% | 1.09 | — | |||
| 70.4% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 44.6% | 2.24 | — | |||
| 23.8% | 4.21 | — | |||
| 29.6% | 3.38 | — | |||
| 55.4% | 1.8 | — | |||
| 76.2% | 1.31 | — |
1st-half goals
| 70.2% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 34.2% | 2.92 | — |
Home team goals
| 75.4% | 1.33 | — | |||
| 41.4% | 2.41 | — |
Away team goals
| 65.0% | 1.54 | — | |||
| 28.3% | 3.53 | — |
Both to score
| 48.8% | 2.05 | — |
Corners
| 73.3% | 1.36 | — | |||
| 62.7% | 1.59 | — | |||
| 51.7% | 1.93 | — | |||
| 41.6% | 2.41 | — | |||
| 32.0% | 3.12 | — | |||
| 37.3% | 2.68 | — | |||
| 48.2% | 2.07 | — | |||
| 58.4% | 1.71 | — | |||
| 68.0% | 1.47 | — |
Home corners
| 75.4% | 1.33 | — | |||
| 61.2% | 1.63 | — | |||
| 46.4% | 2.16 | — |
Away corners
| 61.0% | 1.64 | — | |||
| 43.8% | 2.28 | — | |||
| 29.9% | 3.34 | — |
Cards
| 79.3% | 1.26 | — | |||
| 63.0% | 1.59 | — | |||
| 46.0% | 2.17 | — | |||
| 31.2% | 3.21 | — | |||
| 37.0% | 2.7 | — | |||
| 54.0% | 1.85 | — | |||
| 68.8% | 1.45 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds