Fixtures / Championship / 2026-12-09
Derby – Bristol City
Home
41%
2.42 fair
Draw
26%
3.84 fair
Away
33%
3.07 fair
Expected Goals2.52
Most Likely Score1-1
Both teams to score51%
Over 2.546%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
14 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
41.4%
→
41.3%
-0.1 pp
Draw
26.8%
→
26.1%
-0.8 pp
Away
31.7%
→
32.6%
+0.9 pp
Over 2.5
45.8%
→
46.4%
+0.7 pp
Both teams to score
50.2%
→
51.1%
+0.9 pp
Expected Goals
2.5 →
2.52
+0.02
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 41.3% | 2.42 | — | |||
| 26.1% | 3.84 | — | |||
| 32.6% | 3.07 | — | |||
| 67.4% | 1.48 | — | |||
| 58.7% | 1.7 | — | |||
| 73.9% | 1.35 | — |
Half-time result
| 29.4% | 3.4 | — | |||
| 44.1% | 2.27 | — | |||
| 26.6% | 3.77 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 73.5% | 1.36 | — | |||
| 70.6% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 55.9% | 1.79 | — |
Both halves
| 10.0% | 9.99 | — |
HT/FT
| 22.8% | 4.38 | — | |||
| 4.7% | 21.1 | — | |||
| 15.9% | 6.28 | — | |||
| 16.2% | 6.15 | — | |||
| 11.9% | 8.4 | — | |||
| 5.1% | 19.72 | — | |||
| 18.9% | 5.29 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 59.8% | 1.67 | — | |||
| 52.5% | 1.91 | — | |||
| 34.7% | 2.88 | — | |||
| 35.2% | 2.84 | — | |||
| 46.1% | 2.17 | — | |||
| 30.5% | 3.28 | — | |||
| 39.8% | 2.51 | — | |||
| 49.3% | 2.03 | — | |||
| 52.1% | 1.92 | — |
Total goals
| 92.1% | 1.09 | — | |||
| 71.5% | 1.4 | — | |||
| 46.4% | 2.15 | — | |||
| 24.6% | 4.07 | — | |||
| 28.5% | 3.5 | — | |||
| 53.5% | 1.87 | — | |||
| 75.4% | 1.33 | — |
1st-half goals
| 67.1% | 1.49 | — | |||
| 30.6% | 3.27 | — |
Home team goals
| 74.2% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 39.0% | 2.56 | — |
Away team goals
| 69.0% | 1.45 | — | |||
| 32.6% | 3.07 | — |
Both to score
| 51.1% | 1.96 | — |
Corners
| 73.2% | 1.37 | — | |||
| 62.4% | 1.6 | — | |||
| 51.5% | 1.94 | — | |||
| 41.0% | 2.44 | — | |||
| 32.0% | 3.13 | — | |||
| 37.6% | 2.66 | — | |||
| 48.5% | 2.06 | — | |||
| 59.0% | 1.7 | — | |||
| 68.0% | 1.47 | — |
Home corners
| 72.5% | 1.38 | — | |||
| 57.8% | 1.73 | — | |||
| 42.9% | 2.33 | — |
Away corners
| 64.5% | 1.55 | — | |||
| 47.9% | 2.09 | — | |||
| 33.5% | 2.99 | — |
Cards
| 68.7% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 49.9% | 2.0 | — | |||
| 32.7% | 3.06 | — | |||
| 19.7% | 5.09 | — | |||
| 50.1% | 2.0 | — | |||
| 67.3% | 1.49 | — | |||
| 80.3% | 1.24 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds