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Fixtures / EPL / 2026-12-05

Brentford – Man City

Home 27% 3.76 fair
Draw 24% 4.21 fair
Away 50% 2.01 fair
Expected Goals3.0
Most Likely Score1-1
Both teams to score59%
Over 2.557%

No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ

Prediction history

11 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home 24.0% → 26.6% +2.5 pp
Draw 23.7% → 23.8% +0.1 pp
Away 52.3% → 49.7% -2.6 pp
Over 2.5 57.6% → 57.5% -0.1 pp
Both teams to score 58.3% → 58.9% +0.6 pp
Expected Goals 3.0 → 3.0 0.0
Most Likely Score 1-1 → 1-1
Total goals ⓘ expected 3.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Total corners ⓘ expected 10.42 awaiting league sample
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18+
Total cards (red = 2) ⓘ expected 3.74 awaiting league sample
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10+

Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.

Every market, one number

Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.

Result

26.6% 3.76 —
23.8% 4.21 —
49.7% 2.01 —
50.3% 1.99 —
73.4% 1.36 —
76.2% 1.31 —

Half-time result

24.5% 4.09 —
37.1% 2.69 —
38.4% 2.6 —

Half-time double chance

61.6% 1.62 —
75.5% 1.32 —
62.9% 1.59 —

Both halves

5.9% 17.01 —

HT/FT

16.0% 6.27 —
5.6% 17.99 —
8.7% 11.47 —
13.1% 7.63 —
15.3% 6.54 —
5.1% 19.53 —
31.4% 3.18 —

HT/FT double chance

43.3% 2.31 —
42.9% 2.33 —
36.9% 2.71 —
28.5% 3.51 —
52.2% 1.91 —
45.0% 2.22 —
28.8% 3.47 —
57.3% 1.74 —
64.9% 1.54 —

Total goals

95.0% 1.05 —
79.8% 1.25 —
57.5% 1.74 —
35.5% 2.82 —
20.2% 4.96 —
42.5% 2.35 —
64.5% 1.55 —

1st-half goals

75.9% 1.32 —
40.8% 2.45 —

Home team goals

71.2% 1.4 —
35.1% 2.85 —

Away team goals

82.6% 1.21 —
52.7% 1.9 —

Both to score

58.9% 1.7 —

Corners

76.0% 1.32 —
66.4% 1.51 —
56.0% 1.79 —
45.8% 2.18 —
36.0% 2.78 —
33.6% 2.97 —
44.0% 2.27 —
54.2% 1.85 —
64.0% 1.56 —

Home corners

52.2% 1.92 —
35.3% 2.83 —
22.1% 4.54 —

Away corners

82.8% 1.21 —
71.8% 1.39 —
58.6% 1.71 —

Cards

67.9% 1.47 —
49.3% 2.03 —
32.6% 3.07 —
19.9% 5.03 —
50.6% 1.97 —
67.4% 1.48 —
80.1% 1.25 —

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