Fixtures / Eredivisie / 2026-09-15 19:00
Ajax – Willem II
Goals anchored to market odds
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 86.8% | 1.15 | 85.1% | |
| 8.9% | 11.22 | 10.4% | |
| 4.3% | 23.09 | 4.5% | |
| 95.7% | 1.05 | ||
| 13.2% | 7.56 | ||
| 91.1% | 1.1 |
Half-time result
| 70.5% | 1.42 | ||
| 23.8% | 4.21 | ||
| 5.8% | 17.36 |
Half-time double chance
| 94.2% | 1.06 | ||
| 29.5% | 3.39 | ||
| 76.2% | 1.31 |
Both halves
| 50.4% | 1.99 |
HT/FT
| 67.2% | 1.49 | ||
| 16.9% | 5.91 | ||
| 4.9% | 20.62 |
HT/FT double chance
| 91.6% | 1.09 | ||
| 86.8% | 1.15 | ||
| 10.1% | 9.94 | ||
| 73.9% | 1.35 | ||
| 72.2% | 1.39 | ||
| 6.4% | 15.62 | ||
| 25.8% | 3.88 | ||
| 23.2% | 4.3 | ||
| 10.0% | 9.99 |
Total goals
| 91.4% | 1.09 | ||
| 77.5% | 1.29 | 77.5% | |
| 58.4% | 1.71 | ||
| 8.6% | 11.64 | ||
| 22.5% | 4.44 | 22.5% | |
| 41.6% | 2.41 |
1st-half goals
| 83.2% | 1.2 | ||
| 53.0% | 1.89 |
Home team goals
| 96.7% | 1.03 | ||
| 85.1% | 1.18 |
Away team goals
| 50.5% | 1.98 | ||
| 15.9% | 6.3 |
Both to score
| 48.9% | 2.04 |
Corners
| 74.7% | 1.34 | ||
| 64.8% | 1.54 | ||
| 54.1% | 1.85 | ||
| 43.8% | 2.28 | ||
| 34.4% | 2.91 | ||
| 35.2% | 2.84 | ||
| 45.9% | 2.18 | ||
| 56.2% | 1.78 | ||
| 65.6% | 1.52 |
Home corners
| 84.9% | 1.18 | ||
| 73.9% | 1.35 | ||
| 61.6% | 1.62 |
Away corners
| 44.0% | 2.28 | ||
| 27.3% | 3.66 | ||
| 15.7% | 6.36 |
Cards
| 60.0% | 1.67 | ||
| 40.4% | 2.48 | ||
| 25.0% | 4.01 | ||
| 14.1% | 7.11 | ||
| 59.6% | 1.68 | ||
| 75.0% | 1.33 | ||
| 85.9% | 1.16 |
model · fair · market (no margin)