Fair Lines Ελληνικά

Fixtures / Ligue1 / 2026-09-13 19:45

Brest Paris SG

Home 9% 11.45 fair
Draw 14% 7.16 fair
Away 77% 1.29 fair
Expected Goals3.53
Most Likely Score
Both teams to score52%
Over 2.568%

Goals anchored to market odds

Total goals expected 3.53
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Total corners expected 9.22 no edge over baseline
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18+
Total cards (red = 2) expected 3.27 model adds signal (+2.8%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10+

Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.

Every market, one number

Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.

Result

8.7% 11.45 8.6% 11.00
14.0% 7.16 16.5% 5.75
77.3% 1.29 74.8% 1.27
22.7% 4.41
91.3% 1.1
86.1% 1.16

Half-time result

10.3% 9.67
27.6% 3.62
62.0% 1.61

Half-time double chance

38.0% 2.63
89.7% 1.12
72.4% 1.38

HT/FT

4.8% 20.7
3.2% 31.25
7.8% 12.82
16.6% 6.01
3.4% 29.76
58.0% 1.73

HT/FT double chance

18.6% 5.37
27.4% 3.65
29.9% 3.34
11.7% 8.55
66.2% 1.51
66.8% 1.5
15.1% 6.64
78.5% 1.27
85.8% 1.17

Total goals

96.8% 1.03
86.2% 1.16
67.9% 1.47 68.2% 1.40
46.8% 2.14
13.8% 7.24
32.1% 3.12 31.8% 3.00
53.2% 1.88

1st-half goals

82.7% 1.21
52.1% 1.92

Home team goals

55.4% 1.81
19.7% 5.08

Away team goals

93.2% 1.07
75.2% 1.33

Both to score

51.7% 1.93

Corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

65.7% 1.52
54.6% 1.83
43.2% 2.31
33.4% 2.99
24.6% 4.06
45.4% 2.2
56.8% 1.76
66.6% 1.5
75.4% 1.33

Home corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

50.6% 1.98
34.2% 2.93
20.5% 4.87

Away corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

73.0% 1.37
58.2% 1.72
43.7% 2.29

Cards

60.1% 1.66
39.7% 2.52
24.0% 4.17
13.0% 7.67
60.3% 1.66
76.0% 1.32
87.0% 1.15

model · fair · market (no margin) · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds