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Fixtures / Ligue1 / 2026-09-13 16:15

Le Mans – Lens

Home 20% 4.96 fair
Draw 21% 4.65 fair
Away 58% 1.71 fair
PRE-MATCH Most Likely Score Le Mans – Lens
FINAL Actual Result 2–2 Le Mans – Lens
Expected Goals2.98
Both teams to score55%
Over 2.557%

Goals anchored to market odds ⓘ

Total goals ⓘ expected 2.98
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Total corners ⓘ expected 10.02 no edge over baseline
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18+
Total cards (red = 2) ⓘ expected 4.55 model adds signal (+2.8%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10+

Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.

Every market, one number

Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.

Result

20.2% 4.96 20.0% 4.75
21.5% 4.65 22.6% 4.20
58.3% 1.71 57.5% 1.65
41.7% 2.4 —
79.8% 1.25 —
78.5% 1.27 —

Half-time result

18.8% 5.33 —
30.8% 3.25 —
50.5% 1.98 —

Half-time double chance

49.5% 2.02 —
81.2% 1.23 —
69.2% 1.44 —

Both halves

3.6% 28.01 —

HT/FT

12.7% 7.91 —
4.1% 24.27 —
6.3% 15.97 —
12.4% 8.08 —
12.1% 8.25 —
5.0% 20.0 —
44.2% 2.26 —

HT/FT double chance

35.4% 2.82 —
33.0% 3.03 —
30.6% 3.27 —
23.0% 4.34 —
60.1% 1.66 —
55.3% 1.81 —
24.9% 4.02 —
63.9% 1.57 —
73.7% 1.36 —

Total goals

95.1% 1.05 —
79.8% 1.25 —
57.4% 1.74 56.9% 1.67
34.9% 2.87 —
20.2% 4.96 —
42.6% 2.35 43.1% 2.20
65.1% 1.54 —

1st-half goals

83.2% 1.2 —
53.0% 1.89 —

Home team goals

64.5% 1.55 —
28.1% 3.55 —

Away team goals

85.8% 1.17 —
57.7% 1.73 —

Both to score

55.3% 1.81 —

Corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

73.1% 1.37 —
62.8% 1.59 —
52.1% 1.92 —
41.8% 2.39 —
32.3% 3.1 —
37.1% 2.69 —
47.9% 2.09 —
58.2% 1.72 —
67.7% 1.48 —

Home corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

62.7% 1.6 —
46.5% 2.15 —
32.2% 3.1 —

Away corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

73.6% 1.36 —
58.7% 1.7 —
44.6% 2.24 —

Cards

78.8% 1.27 —
62.6% 1.6 —
46.0% 2.17 —
31.2% 3.2 —
37.4% 2.68 —
54.0% 1.85 —
68.8% 1.45 —

model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds