Fair Lines Ελληνικά

Fixtures / Ligue1 / 2026-09-13 16:15

Le Mans Lens

Home 20% 4.96 fair
Draw 21% 4.65 fair
Away 58% 1.71 fair
Expected Goals2.98
Most Likely Score
Both teams to score55%
Over 2.557%

Goals anchored to market odds

Total goals expected 2.98
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Total corners expected 10.02 no edge over baseline
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18+
Total cards (red = 2) expected 4.55 model adds signal (+2.8%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10+

Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.

Every market, one number

Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.

Result

20.2% 4.96 20.0% 4.75
21.5% 4.65 22.6% 4.20
58.3% 1.71 57.5% 1.65
41.7% 2.4
79.8% 1.25
78.5% 1.27

Half-time result

18.8% 5.33
30.8% 3.25
50.5% 1.98

Half-time double chance

49.5% 2.02
81.2% 1.23
69.2% 1.44

Both halves

3.6% 28.01

HT/FT

12.7% 7.91
4.1% 24.27
6.3% 15.97
12.4% 8.08
12.1% 8.25
5.0% 20.0
44.2% 2.26

HT/FT double chance

35.4% 2.82
33.0% 3.03
30.6% 3.27
23.0% 4.34
60.1% 1.66
55.3% 1.81
24.9% 4.02
63.9% 1.57
73.7% 1.36

Total goals

95.1% 1.05
79.8% 1.25
57.4% 1.74 56.9% 1.67
34.9% 2.87
20.2% 4.96
42.6% 2.35 43.1% 2.20
65.1% 1.54

1st-half goals

83.2% 1.2
53.0% 1.89

Home team goals

64.5% 1.55
28.1% 3.55

Away team goals

85.8% 1.17
57.7% 1.73

Both to score

55.3% 1.81

Corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

73.1% 1.37
62.8% 1.59
52.1% 1.92
41.8% 2.39
32.3% 3.1
37.1% 2.69
47.9% 2.09
58.2% 1.72
67.7% 1.48

Home corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

62.7% 1.6
46.5% 2.15
32.2% 3.1

Away corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

73.6% 1.36
58.7% 1.7
44.6% 2.24

Cards

78.8% 1.27
62.6% 1.6
46.0% 2.17
31.2% 3.2
37.4% 2.68
54.0% 1.85
68.8% 1.45

model · fair · market (no margin) · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds