Fair Lines Ελληνικά

Fixtures / Greece / 2026-09-13 17:00

Asteras Tripolis AEK

Home 11% 9.29 fair
Draw 20% 5.11 fair
Away 70% 1.44 fair
Expected Goals2.66
Most Likely Score
Both teams to score41%
Over 2.550%

Goals anchored to market odds

Total goals expected 2.66
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Total corners expected 8.67 no edge over baseline
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18+
Total cards (red = 2) expected 5.67 model adds signal (+1.0%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10+

Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.

Every market, one number

Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.

Result

10.8% 9.29 10.9% 8.50
19.6% 5.11 21.4% 4.33
69.7% 1.44 67.7% 1.37
30.3% 3.29
89.2% 1.12
80.4% 1.24

Half-time result

10.4% 9.64
41.4% 2.41
48.2% 2.08

Half-time double chance

51.8% 1.93
89.6% 1.12
58.6% 1.71

HT/FT

5.1% 19.69
5.1% 19.8
13.1% 7.63
23.3% 4.3
3.5% 28.33
44.0% 2.27

HT/FT double chance

26.2% 3.82
35.8% 2.8
41.7% 2.4
12.2% 8.21
52.1% 1.92
52.8% 1.89
22.3% 4.48
73.0% 1.37
83.9% 1.19

Total goals

93.0% 1.08
74.8% 1.34
49.9% 2.0 50.0% 1.90
28.3% 3.53
25.2% 3.97
50.1% 2.0 50.0% 1.90
71.7% 1.39

1st-half goals

66.5% 1.5
30.5% 3.27

Home team goals

47.6% 2.1
13.8% 7.27

Away team goals

86.8% 1.15
60.2% 1.66

Both to score

41.4% 2.42

Corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

61.0% 1.64
49.0% 2.04
37.5% 2.66
27.7% 3.62
19.4% 5.17
51.0% 1.96
62.4% 1.6
72.4% 1.38
80.7% 1.24

Home corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

49.1% 2.04
31.7% 3.16
18.9% 5.3

Away corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

69.0% 1.45
53.0% 1.89
37.9% 2.64

Cards

87.6% 1.14
76.0% 1.32
62.0% 1.61
47.7% 2.09
24.0% 4.17
38.0% 2.63
52.2% 1.91

model · fair · market (no margin) · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds