Fixtures / EPL / 2026-09-14 20:00
Leeds – Newcastle
Home
41%
2.43 fair
Draw
25%
3.94 fair
Away
33%
2.99 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
Leeds – Newcastle
FINAL
Actual Result
4–1
Leeds – Newcastle
Expected Goals2.76
Both teams to score56%
Over 2.552%
Goals anchored to market odds ⓘ
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 41.2% | 2.43 | 39.9% | 2.38 | ||
| 25.4% | 3.94 | 27.1% | 3.50 | ||
| 33.4% | 2.99 | 33.0% | 2.88 | ||
| 66.6% | 1.5 | — | |||
| 58.8% | 1.7 | — | |||
| 74.6% | 1.34 | — |
Half-time result
| 35.8% | 2.79 | — | |||
| 43.6% | 2.29 | — | |||
| 20.5% | 4.88 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 79.5% | 1.26 | — | |||
| 64.2% | 1.56 | — | |||
| 56.4% | 1.77 | — |
Both halves
| 10.9% | 9.17 | — |
HT/FT
| 25.9% | 3.85 | — | |||
| 6.5% | 15.43 | — | |||
| 3.4% | 29.33 | — | |||
| 13.5% | 7.42 | — | |||
| 15.2% | 6.56 | — | |||
| 14.9% | 6.7 | — | |||
| 3.6% | 27.4 | — | |||
| 15.1% | 6.62 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 61.2% | 1.64 | — | |||
| 57.8% | 1.73 | — | |||
| 40.1% | 2.5 | — | |||
| 37.8% | 2.64 | — | |||
| 46.2% | 2.16 | — | |||
| 28.7% | 3.49 | — | |||
| 34.1% | 2.93 | — | |||
| 45.3% | 2.21 | — | |||
| 48.9% | 2.04 | — |
Total goals
| 93.6% | 1.07 | — | |||
| 76.1% | 1.31 | — | |||
| 52.2% | 1.92 | 52.6% | 1.80 | ||
| 30.1% | 3.33 | — | |||
| 23.9% | 4.19 | — | |||
| 47.8% | 2.09 | 47.4% | 2.00 | ||
| 69.9% | 1.43 | — |
1st-half goals
| 66.8% | 1.5 | — | |||
| 29.9% | 3.35 | — |
Home team goals
| 77.0% | 1.3 | — | |||
| 43.3% | 2.31 | — |
Away team goals
| 72.6% | 1.38 | — | |||
| 37.5% | 2.67 | — |
Both to score
| 56.1% | 1.78 | — |
Corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.
| 74.0% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 64.0% | 1.56 | — | |||
| 53.1% | 1.88 | — | |||
| 43.0% | 2.33 | — | |||
| 33.4% | 2.99 | — | |||
| 36.0% | 2.78 | — | |||
| 46.9% | 2.13 | — | |||
| 57.0% | 1.75 | — | |||
| 66.6% | 1.5 | — |
Home corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.
| 68.3% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 52.2% | 1.91 | — | |||
| 37.2% | 2.69 | — |
Away corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.
| 70.1% | 1.43 | — | |||
| 55.2% | 1.81 | — | |||
| 40.9% | 2.45 | — |
Cards
| 70.8% | 1.41 | — | |||
| 52.6% | 1.9 | — | |||
| 35.8% | 2.8 | — | |||
| 22.5% | 4.45 | — | |||
| 47.4% | 2.11 | — | |||
| 64.2% | 1.56 | — | |||
| 77.5% | 1.29 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds