Fair Lines Ελληνικά

Fixtures / EPL / 2026-09-13 16:30

Man United Man City

Home 31% 3.26 fair
Draw 23% 4.37 fair
Away 46% 2.15 fair
Expected Goals3.17
Most Likely Score
Both teams to score62%
Over 2.561%

Goals anchored to market odds

Total goals expected 3.17
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Total corners expected 9.94 no edge over baseline
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18+
Total cards (red = 2) expected 3.82 model adds signal (+0.7%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10+

Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.

Every market, one number

Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.

Result

30.6% 3.26 29.4% 3.25
22.9% 4.37 25.1% 3.80
46.5% 2.15 45.5% 2.10
53.5% 1.87
69.3% 1.44
77.1% 1.3

Half-time result

21.6% 4.62
41.6% 2.4
36.7% 2.72

Half-time double chance

63.3% 1.58
78.3% 1.28
58.4% 1.71

Both halves

6.9% 14.56

HT/FT

14.8% 6.76
4.2% 24.04
12.7% 7.89
12.7% 7.86
16.2% 6.17
3.2% 31.45
6.0% 16.75
27.6% 3.63

HT/FT double chance

44.4% 2.25
46.4% 2.16
35.8% 2.79
28.1% 3.56
48.2% 2.07
40.4% 2.48
34.6% 2.89
59.6% 1.68
62.5% 1.6

Total goals

95.6% 1.05
82.2% 1.22
61.4% 1.63 62.0% 1.53
38.8% 2.58
17.8% 5.62
38.6% 2.59 38.0% 2.50
61.2% 1.63

1st-half goals

69.7% 1.43
33.8% 2.96

Home team goals

75.0% 1.33
40.9% 2.44

Away team goals

82.8% 1.21
53.4% 1.87

Both to score

62.2% 1.61

Corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

72.9% 1.37
62.9% 1.59
52.4% 1.91
41.9% 2.38
32.4% 3.09
37.1% 2.7
47.6% 2.1
58.1% 1.72
67.6% 1.48

Home corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

57.0% 1.76
40.4% 2.48
26.6% 3.76

Away corners Disabled for this league: the model does not beat the baseline here.

77.3% 1.29
64.3% 1.55
49.6% 2.01

Cards

69.0% 1.45
50.3% 1.99
33.8% 2.96
21.1% 4.75
49.7% 2.01
66.2% 1.51
78.9% 1.27

model · fair · market (no margin) · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds