Fixtures / Eredivisie / 2026-10-18 14:45
Groningen – Ajax
Home
27%
3.69 fair
Draw
24%
4.21 fair
Away
49%
2.03 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Groningen – Ajax
FINAL
Actual Result
2–5
Groningen – Ajax
Expected Goals3.02
Both teams to score60%
Over 2.558%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
8 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
25.6%
→
27.1%
+1.5 pp
Draw
23.3%
→
23.7%
+0.4 pp
Away
51.0%
→
49.1%
-1.9 pp
Over 2.5
57.4%
→
58.2%
+0.8 pp
Both teams to score
58.0%
→
59.5%
+1.5 pp
Expected Goals
2.97 →
3.02
+0.05
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 27.1% | 3.69 | — | |||
| 23.7% | 4.21 | — | |||
| 49.1% | 2.03 | — | |||
| 50.8% | 1.97 | — | |||
| 72.9% | 1.37 | — | |||
| 76.2% | 1.31 | — |
Half-time result
| 23.2% | 4.3 | — | |||
| 36.4% | 2.75 | — | |||
| 40.4% | 2.47 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 59.6% | 1.68 | — | |||
| 76.8% | 1.3 | — | |||
| 63.6% | 1.57 | — |
Both halves
| 6.2% | 16.16 | — |
HT/FT
| 16.0% | 6.27 | — | |||
| 4.7% | 21.37 | — | |||
| 9.1% | 10.98 | — | |||
| 13.4% | 7.44 | — | |||
| 13.8% | 7.25 | — | |||
| 5.6% | 17.79 | — | |||
| 32.8% | 3.05 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 43.2% | 2.31 | — | |||
| 41.5% | 2.41 | — | |||
| 34.5% | 2.9 | — | |||
| 28.3% | 3.53 | — | |||
| 53.3% | 1.87 | — | |||
| 45.7% | 2.19 | — | |||
| 30.2% | 3.31 | — | |||
| 57.7% | 1.73 | — | |||
| 65.6% | 1.52 | — |
Total goals
| 94.8% | 1.05 | — | |||
| 80.1% | 1.25 | — | |||
| 58.2% | 1.72 | — | |||
| 36.0% | 2.78 | — | |||
| 19.9% | 5.02 | — | |||
| 41.8% | 2.39 | — | |||
| 64.0% | 1.56 | — |
1st-half goals
| 77.2% | 1.3 | — | |||
| 43.2% | 2.31 | — |
Home team goals
| 71.6% | 1.4 | — | |||
| 36.2% | 2.76 | — |
Away team goals
| 82.7% | 1.21 | — | |||
| 52.6% | 1.9 | — |
Both to score
| 59.5% | 1.68 | — |
Corners
| 68.6% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 58.2% | 1.72 | — | |||
| 47.1% | 2.12 | — | |||
| 36.7% | 2.73 | — | |||
| 27.2% | 3.67 | — | |||
| 41.8% | 2.39 | — | |||
| 52.9% | 1.89 | — | |||
| 63.3% | 1.58 | — | |||
| 72.8% | 1.37 | — |
Home corners
| 66.4% | 1.51 | — | |||
| 50.6% | 1.98 | — | |||
| 36.0% | 2.77 | — |
Away corners
| 64.0% | 1.56 | — | |||
| 47.5% | 2.1 | — | |||
| 33.4% | 3.0 | — |
Cards
| 62.5% | 1.6 | — | |||
| 43.4% | 2.31 | — | |||
| 27.3% | 3.66 | — | |||
| 16.1% | 6.2 | — | |||
| 56.6% | 1.77 | — | |||
| 72.7% | 1.38 | — | |||
| 83.9% | 1.19 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds