Fixtures / Eredivisie / 2026-10-16 18:00
Heerenveen – Excelsior
Home
48%
2.09 fair
Draw
23%
4.26 fair
Away
29%
3.49 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Heerenveen – Excelsior
FINAL
Actual Result
4–0
Heerenveen – Excelsior
Expected Goals3.07
Both teams to score61%
Over 2.559%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
4 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
46.0%
→
47.8%
+1.8 pp
Draw
23.4%
→
23.5%
+0.0 pp
Away
30.5%
→
28.7%
-1.9 pp
Over 2.5
58.1%
→
59.1%
+1.0 pp
Both teams to score
59.5%
→
60.8%
+1.3 pp
Expected Goals
3.03 →
3.07
+0.04
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 47.8% | 2.09 | — | |||
| 23.5% | 4.26 | — | |||
| 28.7% | 3.49 | — | |||
| 71.3% | 1.4 | — | |||
| 52.2% | 1.92 | — | |||
| 76.5% | 1.31 | — |
Half-time result
| 34.4% | 2.9 | — | |||
| 38.5% | 2.6 | — | |||
| 27.1% | 3.7 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 73.0% | 1.37 | — | |||
| 65.6% | 1.53 | — | |||
| 61.5% | 1.63 | — |
Both halves
| 14.4% | 6.93 | — |
HT/FT
| 27.9% | 3.58 | — | |||
| 4.7% | 21.1 | — | |||
| 16.1% | 6.21 | — | |||
| 12.7% | 7.86 | — | |||
| 9.7% | 10.33 | — | |||
| 3.8% | 26.32 | — | |||
| 6.0% | 16.67 | — | |||
| 17.2% | 5.8 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 61.5% | 1.63 | — | |||
| 55.5% | 1.8 | — | |||
| 28.9% | 3.46 | — | |||
| 42.5% | 2.35 | — | |||
| 50.7% | 1.97 | — | |||
| 29.8% | 3.36 | — | |||
| 38.6% | 2.59 | — | |||
| 46.8% | 2.14 | — | |||
| 45.7% | 2.19 | — |
Total goals
| 95.4% | 1.05 | — | |||
| 81.0% | 1.23 | — | |||
| 59.1% | 1.69 | — | |||
| 36.9% | 2.71 | — | |||
| 19.0% | 5.27 | — | |||
| 40.9% | 2.44 | — | |||
| 63.1% | 1.58 | — |
1st-half goals
| 74.7% | 1.34 | — | |||
| 40.3% | 2.48 | — |
Home team goals
| 82.9% | 1.21 | — | |||
| 52.4% | 1.91 | — |
Away team goals
| 73.3% | 1.36 | — | |||
| 37.7% | 2.65 | — |
Both to score
| 60.8% | 1.64 | — |
Corners
| 71.4% | 1.4 | — | |||
| 61.2% | 1.63 | — | |||
| 50.3% | 1.99 | — | |||
| 39.7% | 2.52 | — | |||
| 30.1% | 3.32 | — | |||
| 38.8% | 2.58 | — | |||
| 49.6% | 2.01 | — | |||
| 60.3% | 1.66 | — | |||
| 69.8% | 1.43 | — |
Home corners
| 80.2% | 1.25 | — | |||
| 67.3% | 1.49 | — | |||
| 53.2% | 1.88 | — |
Away corners
| 49.5% | 2.02 | — | |||
| 33.0% | 3.03 | — | |||
| 19.9% | 5.02 | — |
Cards
| 52.4% | 1.91 | — | |||
| 32.8% | 3.05 | — | |||
| 18.8% | 5.33 | — | |||
| 10.0% | 10.0 | — | |||
| 67.2% | 1.49 | — | |||
| 81.2% | 1.23 | — | |||
| 90.0% | 1.11 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds