Fixtures / EPL / 2026-11-08 16:30
Man United – Aston Villa
Home
41%
2.47 fair
Draw
25%
3.98 fair
Away
34%
2.91 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Man United – Aston Villa
FINAL
Actual Result
4–4
Man United – Aston Villa
Expected Goals2.93
Both teams to score59%
Over 2.556%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
12 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
44.1%
→
40.6%
-3.6 pp
Draw
23.7%
→
25.1%
+1.4 pp
Away
32.2%
→
34.3%
+2.1 pp
Over 2.5
58.3%
→
56.2%
-2.2 pp
Both teams to score
60.5%
→
59.0%
-1.5 pp
Expected Goals
3.04 →
2.93
-0.11
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 40.6% | 2.47 | — | |||
| 25.1% | 3.98 | — | |||
| 34.3% | 2.91 | — | |||
| 65.6% | 1.52 | — | |||
| 59.5% | 1.68 | — | |||
| 74.9% | 1.34 | — |
Half-time result
| 32.0% | 3.13 | — | |||
| 46.5% | 2.15 | — | |||
| 21.6% | 4.64 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 78.4% | 1.27 | — | |||
| 68.0% | 1.47 | — | |||
| 53.5% | 1.87 | — |
Both halves
| 11.1% | 9.04 | — |
HT/FT
| 22.6% | 4.43 | — | |||
| 6.0% | 16.64 | — | |||
| 3.4% | 29.41 | — | |||
| 15.7% | 6.38 | — | |||
| 14.8% | 6.74 | — | |||
| 16.0% | 6.26 | — | |||
| 4.2% | 23.53 | — | |||
| 15.0% | 6.68 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 59.1% | 1.69 | — | |||
| 57.6% | 1.74 | — | |||
| 40.2% | 2.49 | — | |||
| 35.1% | 2.85 | — | |||
| 43.2% | 2.31 | — | |||
| 28.6% | 3.49 | — | |||
| 37.1% | 2.7 | — | |||
| 48.9% | 2.04 | — | |||
| 50.0% | 2.0 | — |
Total goals
| 94.5% | 1.06 | — | |||
| 79.0% | 1.27 | — | |||
| 56.2% | 1.78 | — | |||
| 33.9% | 2.95 | — | |||
| 21.0% | 4.75 | — | |||
| 43.8% | 2.28 | — | |||
| 66.1% | 1.51 | — |
1st-half goals
| 63.4% | 1.58 | — | |||
| 27.2% | 3.68 | — |
Home team goals
| 78.3% | 1.28 | — | |||
| 45.9% | 2.18 | — |
Away team goals
| 75.2% | 1.33 | — | |||
| 40.4% | 2.48 | — |
Both to score
| 59.0% | 1.7 | — |
Corners
| 76.0% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 66.6% | 1.5 | — | |||
| 55.5% | 1.8 | — | |||
| 45.2% | 2.21 | — | |||
| 35.3% | 2.84 | — | |||
| 33.4% | 3.0 | — | |||
| 44.5% | 2.25 | — | |||
| 54.8% | 1.82 | — | |||
| 64.7% | 1.54 | — |
Home corners
| 74.0% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 59.4% | 1.68 | — | |||
| 44.7% | 2.24 | — |
Away corners
| 67.0% | 1.49 | — | |||
| 51.0% | 1.96 | — | |||
| 36.6% | 2.73 | — |
Cards
| 76.8% | 1.3 | — | |||
| 60.5% | 1.65 | — | |||
| 44.1% | 2.27 | — | |||
| 30.6% | 3.27 | — | |||
| 39.5% | 2.53 | — | |||
| 55.9% | 1.79 | — | |||
| 69.4% | 1.44 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds