Fixtures / EPL / 2026-10-24 11:30
Aston Villa – Man City
Home
24%
4.25 fair
Draw
23%
4.36 fair
Away
54%
1.87 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Aston Villa – Man City
FINAL
Actual Result
2–1
Aston Villa – Man City
Expected Goals2.95
Both teams to score56%
Over 2.557%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
7 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
23.5%
→
23.5%
+0.1 pp
Draw
22.9%
→
23.0%
+0.1 pp
Away
53.7%
→
53.5%
-0.2 pp
Over 2.5
57.5%
→
56.7%
-0.8 pp
Both teams to score
57.0%
→
56.3%
-0.7 pp
Expected Goals
2.98 →
2.95
-0.03
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 23.5% | 4.25 | — | |||
| 23.0% | 4.36 | — | |||
| 53.5% | 1.87 | — | |||
| 46.5% | 2.15 | — | |||
| 76.5% | 1.31 | — | |||
| 77.0% | 1.3 | — |
Half-time result
| 18.9% | 5.3 | — | |||
| 38.8% | 2.58 | — | |||
| 42.4% | 2.36 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 57.6% | 1.73 | — | |||
| 81.1% | 1.23 | — | |||
| 61.2% | 1.63 | — |
Both halves
| 4.6% | 21.88 | — |
HT/FT
| 12.0% | 8.36 | — | |||
| 4.2% | 23.81 | — | |||
| 9.6% | 10.43 | — | |||
| 13.4% | 7.49 | — | |||
| 15.8% | 6.31 | — | |||
| 5.4% | 18.48 | — | |||
| 35.0% | 2.86 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 39.1% | 2.56 | — | |||
| 40.1% | 2.49 | — | |||
| 36.1% | 2.77 | — | |||
| 23.5% | 4.25 | — | |||
| 51.6% | 1.94 | — | |||
| 47.3% | 2.12 | — | |||
| 30.3% | 3.3 | — | |||
| 62.4% | 1.6 | — | |||
| 69.6% | 1.44 | — |
Total goals
| 94.6% | 1.06 | — | |||
| 78.9% | 1.27 | — | |||
| 56.7% | 1.76 | — | |||
| 34.1% | 2.93 | — | |||
| 21.1% | 4.74 | — | |||
| 43.3% | 2.31 | — | |||
| 65.9% | 1.52 | — |
1st-half goals
| 72.4% | 1.38 | — | |||
| 36.7% | 2.73 | — |
Home team goals
| 67.7% | 1.48 | — | |||
| 31.3% | 3.19 | — |
Away team goals
| 83.2% | 1.2 | — | |||
| 54.1% | 1.85 | — |
Both to score
| 56.3% | 1.78 | — |
Corners
| 72.7% | 1.38 | — | |||
| 62.4% | 1.6 | — | |||
| 51.7% | 1.93 | — | |||
| 41.8% | 2.39 | — | |||
| 32.2% | 3.11 | — | |||
| 37.6% | 2.66 | — | |||
| 48.3% | 2.07 | — | |||
| 58.2% | 1.72 | — | |||
| 67.8% | 1.47 | — |
Home corners
| 58.4% | 1.71 | — | |||
| 41.9% | 2.39 | — | |||
| 27.7% | 3.6 | — |
Away corners
| 75.7% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 62.0% | 1.61 | — | |||
| 48.1% | 2.08 | — |
Cards
| 72.2% | 1.39 | — | |||
| 54.6% | 1.83 | — | |||
| 38.4% | 2.6 | — | |||
| 25.1% | 3.99 | — | |||
| 45.4% | 2.2 | — | |||
| 61.6% | 1.62 | — | |||
| 74.9% | 1.33 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds