Fixtures / EPL / 2026-10-17 16:30
Newcastle – Aston Villa
Home
45%
2.22 fair
Draw
23%
4.29 fair
Away
32%
3.16 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Newcastle – Aston Villa
FINAL
Actual Result
0–1
Newcastle – Aston Villa
Expected Goals3.2
Both teams to score64%
Over 2.562%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
6 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
45.6%
→
45.0%
-0.7 pp
Draw
23.1%
→
23.3%
+0.3 pp
Away
31.3%
→
31.7%
+0.4 pp
Over 2.5
60.8%
→
61.8%
+1.0 pp
Both teams to score
61.8%
→
63.6%
+1.8 pp
Expected Goals
3.15 →
3.2
+0.05
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 45.0% | 2.22 | — | |||
| 23.3% | 4.29 | — | |||
| 31.7% | 3.16 | — | |||
| 68.3% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 55.0% | 1.82 | — | |||
| 76.7% | 1.3 | — |
Half-time result
| 43.6% | 2.3 | — | |||
| 36.4% | 2.74 | — | |||
| 20.0% | 5.01 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 80.0% | 1.25 | — | |||
| 56.4% | 1.77 | — | |||
| 63.5% | 1.57 | — |
Both halves
| 13.1% | 7.63 | — |
HT/FT
| 31.9% | 3.14 | — | |||
| 7.8% | 12.82 | — | |||
| 3.9% | 25.58 | — | |||
| 11.4% | 8.76 | — | |||
| 12.1% | 8.26 | — | |||
| 12.9% | 7.73 | — | |||
| 3.4% | 29.33 | — | |||
| 14.8% | 6.73 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 63.2% | 1.58 | — | |||
| 60.1% | 1.66 | — | |||
| 36.7% | 2.72 | — | |||
| 44.8% | 2.23 | — | |||
| 52.3% | 1.91 | — | |||
| 30.0% | 3.34 | — | |||
| 28.7% | 3.49 | — | |||
| 40.9% | 2.44 | — | |||
| 43.3% | 2.31 | — |
Total goals
| 95.8% | 1.04 | — | |||
| 82.7% | 1.21 | — | |||
| 61.8% | 1.62 | — | |||
| 39.8% | 2.51 | — | |||
| 17.3% | 5.79 | — | |||
| 38.2% | 2.62 | — | |||
| 60.2% | 1.66 | — |
1st-half goals
| 76.0% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 42.0% | 2.38 | — |
Home team goals
| 82.8% | 1.21 | — | |||
| 52.2% | 1.92 | — |
Away team goals
| 76.6% | 1.31 | — | |||
| 42.2% | 2.37 | — |
Both to score
| 63.6% | 1.57 | — |
Corners
| 78.0% | 1.28 | — | |||
| 68.8% | 1.45 | — | |||
| 58.4% | 1.71 | — | |||
| 48.3% | 2.07 | — | |||
| 38.4% | 2.6 | — | |||
| 31.2% | 3.2 | — | |||
| 41.6% | 2.4 | — | |||
| 51.7% | 1.93 | — | |||
| 61.6% | 1.62 | — |
Home corners
| 75.9% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 62.0% | 1.61 | — | |||
| 47.8% | 2.09 | — |
Away corners
| 68.0% | 1.47 | — | |||
| 52.3% | 1.91 | — | |||
| 37.7% | 2.65 | — |
Cards
| 77.5% | 1.29 | — | |||
| 61.2% | 1.63 | — | |||
| 44.7% | 2.24 | — | |||
| 30.8% | 3.24 | — | |||
| 38.8% | 2.58 | — | |||
| 55.3% | 1.81 | — | |||
| 69.2% | 1.45 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds