Fixtures / Portugal / 2026-10-11 19:30
Arouca – Estrela
Home
53%
1.9 fair
Draw
23%
4.36 fair
Away
24%
4.11 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Arouca – Estrela
FINAL
Actual Result
1–0
Arouca – Estrela
Expected Goals2.96
Both teams to score57%
Over 2.557%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
6 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
52.7%
→
52.7%
0.0 pp
Draw
23.0%
→
22.9%
-0.1 pp
Away
24.3%
→
24.3%
+0.1 pp
Over 2.5
56.5%
→
56.6%
+0.0 pp
Both teams to score
57.3%
→
57.3%
-0.0 pp
Expected Goals
2.96 →
2.96
0.0
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 52.7% | 1.9 | — | |||
| 22.9% | 4.36 | — | |||
| 24.3% | 4.11 | — | |||
| 75.6% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 47.3% | 2.11 | — | |||
| 77.1% | 1.3 | — |
Half-time result
| 34.2% | 2.93 | — | |||
| 41.2% | 2.43 | — | |||
| 24.6% | 4.06 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 75.4% | 1.33 | — | |||
| 65.8% | 1.52 | — | |||
| 58.8% | 1.7 | — |
Both halves
| 15.8% | 6.33 | — |
HT/FT
| 28.9% | 3.46 | — | |||
| 3.9% | 25.38 | — | |||
| 19.7% | 5.09 | — | |||
| 13.2% | 7.59 | — | |||
| 8.4% | 11.96 | — | |||
| 4.2% | 23.92 | — | |||
| 5.8% | 17.15 | — | |||
| 14.6% | 6.84 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 65.6% | 1.52 | — | |||
| 58.3% | 1.72 | — | |||
| 26.9% | 3.72 | — | |||
| 42.8% | 2.34 | — | |||
| 49.0% | 2.04 | — | |||
| 25.8% | 3.88 | — | |||
| 42.8% | 2.33 | — | |||
| 46.8% | 2.14 | — | |||
| 42.0% | 2.38 | — |
Total goals
| 94.8% | 1.05 | — | |||
| 79.2% | 1.26 | — | |||
| 56.6% | 1.77 | — | |||
| 34.1% | 2.93 | — | |||
| 20.8% | 4.82 | — | |||
| 43.4% | 2.3 | — | |||
| 65.9% | 1.52 | — |
1st-half goals
| 70.5% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 34.5% | 2.9 | — |
Home team goals
| 83.5% | 1.2 | — | |||
| 53.7% | 1.86 | — |
Away team goals
| 68.5% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 32.3% | 3.09 | — |
Both to score
| 57.3% | 1.75 | — |
Corners
| 67.2% | 1.49 | — | |||
| 56.5% | 1.77 | — | |||
| 45.4% | 2.2 | — | |||
| 35.6% | 2.81 | — | |||
| 26.9% | 3.72 | — | |||
| 43.5% | 2.3 | — | |||
| 54.6% | 1.83 | — | |||
| 64.4% | 1.55 | — | |||
| 73.2% | 1.37 | — |
Home corners
| 73.7% | 1.36 | — | |||
| 59.4% | 1.68 | — | |||
| 44.9% | 2.23 | — |
Away corners
| 52.6% | 1.9 | — | |||
| 36.1% | 2.77 | — | |||
| 22.8% | 4.39 | — |
Cards
| 89.1% | 1.12 | — | |||
| 78.8% | 1.27 | — | |||
| 66.5% | 1.5 | — | |||
| 53.3% | 1.88 | — | |||
| 21.1% | 4.73 | — | |||
| 33.5% | 2.98 | — | |||
| 46.7% | 2.14 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds