Fixtures / LaLiga2 / 2026-10-04 16:30
Castellon – Ceuta
Home
72%
1.4 fair
Draw
16%
6.14 fair
Away
12%
8.31 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
2-0
Castellon – Ceuta
FINAL
Actual Result
1–1
Castellon – Ceuta
Expected Goals3.47
Both teams to score56%
Over 2.567%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
4 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
72.4%
→
71.7%
-0.7 pp
Draw
15.5%
→
16.3%
+0.8 pp
Away
12.1%
→
12.0%
-0.1 pp
Over 2.5
67.2%
→
67.2%
+0.0 pp
Both teams to score
55.3%
→
56.0%
+0.7 pp
Expected Goals
3.45 →
3.47
+0.02
Most Likely Score
2-0
→
2-0
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 71.7% | 1.4 | — | |||
| 16.3% | 6.14 | — | |||
| 12.0% | 8.31 | — | |||
| 88.0% | 1.14 | — | |||
| 28.3% | 3.53 | — | |||
| 83.7% | 1.19 | — |
Half-time result
| 53.8% | 1.86 | — | |||
| 30.9% | 3.23 | — | |||
| 15.3% | 6.55 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 84.7% | 1.18 | — | |||
| 46.2% | 2.16 | — | |||
| 69.1% | 1.45 | — |
Both halves
| 31.6% | 3.16 | — |
HT/FT
| 49.6% | 2.01 | — | |||
| 3.3% | 30.4 | — | |||
| 18.1% | 5.51 | — | |||
| 8.9% | 11.21 | — | |||
| 3.9% | 25.91 | — | |||
| 3.9% | 25.71 | — | |||
| 4.1% | 24.51 | — | |||
| 7.3% | 13.68 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 80.0% | 1.25 | — | |||
| 72.5% | 1.38 | — | |||
| 16.9% | 5.9 | — | |||
| 60.9% | 1.64 | — | |||
| 61.7% | 1.62 | — | |||
| 15.5% | 6.44 | — | |||
| 35.0% | 2.85 | — | |||
| 33.2% | 3.01 | — | |||
| 24.2% | 4.14 | — |
Total goals
| 96.8% | 1.03 | — | |||
| 86.1% | 1.16 | — | |||
| 67.2% | 1.49 | — | |||
| 45.5% | 2.2 | — | |||
| 13.9% | 7.17 | — | |||
| 32.8% | 3.05 | — | |||
| 54.5% | 1.83 | — |
1st-half goals
| 81.4% | 1.23 | — | |||
| 50.3% | 1.99 | — |
Home team goals
| 91.7% | 1.09 | — | |||
| 71.7% | 1.39 | — |
Away team goals
| 61.1% | 1.64 | — | |||
| 24.4% | 4.1 | — |
Both to score
| 56.0% | 1.79 | — |
Corners
| 68.6% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 57.3% | 1.74 | — | |||
| 46.1% | 2.17 | — | |||
| 35.9% | 2.79 | — | |||
| 26.6% | 3.76 | — | |||
| 42.7% | 2.34 | — | |||
| 53.9% | 1.86 | — | |||
| 64.1% | 1.56 | — | |||
| 73.4% | 1.36 | — |
Home corners
| 79.7% | 1.26 | — | |||
| 66.5% | 1.5 | — | |||
| 52.1% | 1.92 | — |
Away corners
| 44.9% | 2.23 | — | |||
| 28.5% | 3.51 | — | |||
| 16.5% | 6.06 | — |
Cards
| 89.3% | 1.12 | — | |||
| 78.4% | 1.28 | — | |||
| 64.3% | 1.55 | — | |||
| 49.8% | 2.01 | — | |||
| 21.6% | 4.63 | — | |||
| 35.7% | 2.8 | — | |||
| 50.2% | 1.99 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds