Fixtures / LaLiga / 2026-10-10 19:00
Real Madrid – Villarreal
Home
67%
1.5 fair
Draw
17%
5.78 fair
Away
16%
6.25 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
2-1
Real Madrid – Villarreal
FINAL
Actual Result
1–0
Real Madrid – Villarreal
Expected Goals3.62
Both teams to score62%
Over 2.570%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
4 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
66.7%
→
66.7%
-0.0 pp
Draw
17.3%
→
17.3%
+0.0 pp
Away
16.0%
→
16.0%
0.0 pp
Over 2.5
70.0%
→
70.0%
+0.0 pp
Both teams to score
62.3%
→
62.3%
-0.0 pp
Expected Goals
3.62 →
3.62
0.0
Most Likely Score
2-1
→
2-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 66.7% | 1.5 | — | |||
| 17.3% | 5.78 | — | |||
| 16.0% | 6.25 | — | |||
| 84.0% | 1.19 | — | |||
| 33.3% | 3.0 | — | |||
| 82.7% | 1.21 | — |
Half-time result
| 54.6% | 1.83 | — | |||
| 29.0% | 3.44 | — | |||
| 16.4% | 6.12 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 83.7% | 1.2 | — | |||
| 45.4% | 2.2 | — | |||
| 71.0% | 1.41 | — |
Both halves
| 27.3% | 3.66 | — |
HT/FT
| 48.9% | 2.05 | — | |||
| 4.4% | 22.73 | — | |||
| 14.7% | 6.79 | — | |||
| 9.0% | 11.09 | — | |||
| 5.3% | 18.8 | — | |||
| 3.1% | 32.15 | — | |||
| 3.9% | 25.71 | — | |||
| 9.3% | 10.7 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 77.0% | 1.3 | — | |||
| 70.2% | 1.42 | — | |||
| 20.1% | 4.98 | — | |||
| 60.3% | 1.66 | — | |||
| 62.7% | 1.6 | — | |||
| 19.0% | 5.27 | — | |||
| 30.7% | 3.25 | — | |||
| 32.5% | 3.08 | — | |||
| 27.6% | 3.63 | — |
Total goals
| 87.6% | 1.14 | — | |||
| 70.0% | 1.43 | — | |||
| 48.9% | 2.05 | — | |||
| 12.4% | 8.06 | — | |||
| 30.0% | 3.33 | — | |||
| 51.1% | 1.96 | — |
1st-half goals
| 84.2% | 1.19 | — | |||
| 55.5% | 1.8 | — |
Home team goals
| 91.4% | 1.09 | — | |||
| 70.7% | 1.41 | — |
Away team goals
| 68.2% | 1.47 | — | |||
| 31.6% | 3.17 | — |
Both to score
| 62.3% | 1.6 | — |
Corners
| 74.3% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 64.5% | 1.55 | — | |||
| 54.1% | 1.85 | — | |||
| 44.0% | 2.27 | — | |||
| 34.4% | 2.91 | — | |||
| 35.4% | 2.82 | — | |||
| 45.9% | 2.18 | — | |||
| 56.0% | 1.78 | — | |||
| 65.6% | 1.52 | — |
Home corners
| 83.4% | 1.2 | — | |||
| 72.1% | 1.39 | — | |||
| 59.7% | 1.67 | — |
Away corners
| 47.2% | 2.12 | — | |||
| 31.0% | 3.22 | — | |||
| 18.6% | 5.37 | — |
Cards
| 79.5% | 1.26 | — | |||
| 65.2% | 1.53 | — | |||
| 50.2% | 1.99 | — | |||
| 36.1% | 2.77 | — | |||
| 34.8% | 2.87 | — | |||
| 49.8% | 2.01 | — | |||
| 63.8% | 1.57 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds