Fixtures / EPL / 2026-10-11 15:30
Liverpool – Man City
Home
32%
3.1 fair
Draw
24%
4.21 fair
Away
44%
2.28 fair
PRE-MATCH
Most Likely Score
1-1
Liverpool – Man City
FINAL
Actual Result
0–3
Liverpool – Man City
Expected Goals3.05
Both teams to score61%
Over 2.559%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
5 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
32.3%
→
32.3%
0.0 pp
Draw
23.8%
→
23.8%
0.0 pp
Away
43.9%
→
43.9%
0.0 pp
Over 2.5
58.7%
→
58.7%
0.0 pp
Both teams to score
60.9%
→
60.9%
-0.0 pp
Expected Goals
3.05 →
3.05
0.0
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 32.3% | 3.1 | — | |||
| 23.8% | 4.21 | — | |||
| 43.9% | 2.28 | — | |||
| 56.1% | 1.78 | — | |||
| 67.7% | 1.48 | — | |||
| 76.2% | 1.31 | — |
Half-time result
| 24.2% | 4.13 | — | |||
| 40.5% | 2.47 | — | |||
| 35.2% | 2.84 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 64.7% | 1.54 | — | |||
| 75.8% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 59.5% | 1.68 | — |
Both halves
| 7.5% | 13.4 | — |
HT/FT
| 16.9% | 5.93 | — | |||
| 4.8% | 20.88 | — | |||
| 12.7% | 7.88 | — | |||
| 13.0% | 7.72 | — | |||
| 14.9% | 6.72 | — | |||
| 6.0% | 16.61 | — | |||
| 26.5% | 3.78 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 47.3% | 2.11 | — | |||
| 47.0% | 2.13 | — | |||
| 35.2% | 2.84 | — | |||
| 30.4% | 3.29 | — | |||
| 48.7% | 2.05 | — | |||
| 39.9% | 2.51 | — | |||
| 34.4% | 2.91 | — | |||
| 56.8% | 1.76 | — | |||
| 60.3% | 1.66 | — |
Total goals
| 95.6% | 1.05 | — | |||
| 80.8% | 1.24 | — | |||
| 58.7% | 1.7 | — | |||
| 36.5% | 2.74 | — | |||
| 19.2% | 5.21 | — | |||
| 41.3% | 2.42 | — | |||
| 63.5% | 1.57 | — |
1st-half goals
| 72.1% | 1.39 | — | |||
| 36.7% | 2.73 | — |
Home team goals
| 75.4% | 1.33 | — | |||
| 40.5% | 2.47 | — |
Away team goals
| 81.2% | 1.23 | — | |||
| 49.1% | 2.04 | — |
Both to score
| 60.9% | 1.64 | — |
Corners
| 74.1% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 63.9% | 1.57 | — | |||
| 53.3% | 1.87 | — | |||
| 43.1% | 2.32 | — | |||
| 33.4% | 2.99 | — | |||
| 36.1% | 2.77 | — | |||
| 46.7% | 2.14 | — | |||
| 56.9% | 1.76 | — | |||
| 66.6% | 1.5 | — |
Home corners
| 69.7% | 1.43 | — | |||
| 54.3% | 1.84 | — | |||
| 39.5% | 2.53 | — |
Away corners
| 68.7% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 53.5% | 1.87 | — | |||
| 39.3% | 2.54 | — |
Cards
| 67.7% | 1.48 | — | |||
| 49.2% | 2.03 | — | |||
| 32.8% | 3.05 | — | |||
| 20.2% | 4.96 | — | |||
| 50.8% | 1.97 | — | |||
| 67.2% | 1.49 | — | |||
| 79.8% | 1.25 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds