Fixtures / Eredivisie / 2026-12-19
Excelsior – AZ Alkmaar
Home
22%
4.49 fair
Draw
22%
4.54 fair
Away
56%
1.8 fair
Expected Goals3.07
Most Likely Score1-1
Both teams to score58%
Over 2.559%
No market odds available — goals from model only ⓘ
Prediction history
7 versions
Initial prediction
Latest prediction
Home
26.0%
→
22.3%
-3.7 pp
Draw
23.0%
→
22.1%
-1.0 pp
Away
51.0%
→
55.7%
+4.7 pp
Over 2.5
58.9%
→
59.0%
+0.1 pp
Both teams to score
59.5%
→
58.4%
-1.1 pp
Expected Goals
3.05 →
3.07
+0.02
Most Likely Score
1-1
→
1-1
Bars show the probability of each exact total. The last bar is “or more”.
Every market, one number
Fair odds = 1 / probability, before any bookmaker margin. Compare with your bookmaker: if their price is higher than fair, that leg has value.
Result
| 22.3% | 4.49 | — | |||
| 22.1% | 4.54 | — | |||
| 55.7% | 1.8 | — | |||
| 44.3% | 2.26 | — | |||
| 77.7% | 1.29 | — | |||
| 77.9% | 1.28 | — |
Half-time result
| 24.3% | 4.12 | — | |||
| 38.4% | 2.61 | — | |||
| 37.4% | 2.68 | — |
Half-time double chance
| 62.6% | 1.6 | — | |||
| 75.7% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 61.7% | 1.62 | — |
Both halves
| 4.3% | 22.99 | — |
HT/FT
| 14.0% | 7.12 | — | |||
| 5.8% | 17.3 | — | |||
| 4.5% | 22.32 | — | |||
| 7.0% | 14.27 | — | |||
| 12.4% | 8.06 | — | |||
| 18.9% | 5.28 | — | |||
| 3.9% | 25.84 | — | |||
| 32.3% | 3.1 | — |
HT/FT double chance
| 39.2% | 2.55 | — | |||
| 44.5% | 2.25 | — | |||
| 41.6% | 2.4 | — | |||
| 24.9% | 4.01 | — | |||
| 52.0% | 1.92 | — | |||
| 46.4% | 2.16 | — | |||
| 24.5% | 4.08 | — | |||
| 59.4% | 1.68 | — | |||
| 67.5% | 1.48 | — |
Total goals
| 95.5% | 1.05 | — | |||
| 81.1% | 1.23 | — | |||
| 59.0% | 1.69 | — | |||
| 37.0% | 2.7 | — | |||
| 18.9% | 5.28 | — | |||
| 41.0% | 2.44 | — | |||
| 63.0% | 1.59 | — |
1st-half goals
| 74.6% | 1.34 | — | |||
| 39.4% | 2.54 | — |
Home team goals
| 68.3% | 1.46 | — | |||
| 31.6% | 3.17 | — |
Away team goals
| 85.6% | 1.17 | — | |||
| 57.5% | 1.74 | — |
Both to score
| 58.4% | 1.71 | — |
Corners
| 69.5% | 1.44 | — | |||
| 58.5% | 1.71 | — | |||
| 47.4% | 2.11 | — | |||
| 37.2% | 2.69 | — | |||
| 27.9% | 3.58 | — | |||
| 41.5% | 2.41 | — | |||
| 52.5% | 1.9 | — | |||
| 62.8% | 1.59 | — | |||
| 72.1% | 1.39 | — |
Home corners
| 55.5% | 1.8 | — | |||
| 38.2% | 2.62 | — | |||
| 24.7% | 4.05 | — |
Away corners
| 73.8% | 1.35 | — | |||
| 59.4% | 1.68 | — | |||
| 45.2% | 2.21 | — |
Cards
| 58.3% | 1.72 | — | |||
| 39.1% | 2.56 | — | |||
| 24.1% | 4.15 | — | |||
| 13.7% | 7.28 | — | |||
| 61.0% | 1.64 | — | |||
| 75.9% | 1.32 | — | |||
| 86.3% | 1.16 | — |
model · fair ⓘ · market (no margin) ⓘ · bookmaker · Your bookmaker's odds